Euangelion · October 12, 2026
Original source-based figure. CC BY 4.0.
Source: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/papers/forwardguidance.pdf
Current output response to a promised future rate cut: 25 basis points with complete markets; 10.3 with income risk and borrowing constraints.
2016 model experiment: 50-basis-point real-rate cut for one quarter, five years ahead. Simulated output responses, not observed policy effects.
Zero-baseline bars. No third-party artwork reused.