Simon’s mainland warnings ease, but flooding and a later coastal approach remain threats
At 15:00 UTC on October 12, NHC lowered mainland hurricane warnings as Simon weakened to 110 mph, while retaining a hurricane warning for Las Islas Marias and forecasting a Wednesday–Thursday coastal approach.
The storm was moving northwest at only 3 mph.
NHC expects a later turn northeast, with possible strengthening before it approaches west-central Mexico. Mainland areas now carry a mix of hurricane watches and tropical-storm warnings; a downgraded warning does not mean the flood danger has ended. [1]
NHC forecasts another 2–4 inches of rain across coastal southwest and west-central Mexico, with isolated additional totals of 6–8 inches in parts of Jalisco and Sinaloa. Isolated totals for the entire storm could reach 30 inches in parts of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These are forecasts, not measured rain totals. [1]
Reuters reporters found flooded homes and streets in Manzanillo and rising water in the Marabasco River near Cihuatlan. Follow local civil-protection instructions; the map’s cone concerns the storm centre, while flooding, surf and dangerous winds can extend beyond it. [2][3]
Take it further
Current official warnings Read the issue time and local civil-protection instructions. Advisory 21 was checked at 15:20 UTC; the next intermediate advisory is scheduled for 18:00 UTC.
Sources & details 4 sources
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Paste the brief into your voice app to discuss this reporting.Advisory 21 materially changes mainland warnings, lowers intensity to 110 mph and moves the expected coastal approach to Wednesday–Thursday. No completed landfall is reported. Checked 12 October 2026.
Reporting sources
- NHC · archived Advisory 21
October 12, 2026 at 15:00 UTC; 08:00 MST, UTC−07:00. Exact advisory retained; forecasts and warning areas can change.
- Reuters · reporting from Manzanillo
October 12 reporting by Alberto Fajardo and Daniel Becerril. The earlier 12:00 UTC intensity in this account is superseded by Advisory 21; field observations are distinct from forecast estimates.
- NHC · official forecast cone
Full Advisory 21 frame issued 15:00 UTC October 12. The cone is track uncertainty, not the storm’s hazard boundary.
- National Weather Service · reuse terms
US government weather product; original graphic retained unchanged. Agency marks do not imply endorsement.
Images & figures
Simon · October 12, 15:00 UTC. Centre winds 110 mph; moving northwest at 3 mph. The cone shows track uncertainty; hazards extend outside it.
NOAA / National Hurricane Center · Source · Usage terms